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Bad weather and volatility drives drop in farm incomes

Environment and climate
Calculator in a field of wheat

Photograph: INSADCO GmbH / Alamy Stock Photo

Large decreases in crop outputs have driven a 19% drop in farming profitability in England according to Defra’s latest figures.

Published as part of – which measure the total profit from all UK farming businesses during the past calendar year – this drop translates to a fall of £1.1 billion from 2022 giving an overall total income of £4.5 billion for England.

The fall follows a spike in 2022 figures, driven by high global costs pushing up commodity prices following the war in Ukraine.

Farming’s overall contribution to England’s economy also fell by £1bn or 8.7% compared with 2022.

Income from diversification saw a small increase however, rising from £1.321bn to £1.393bn.

‘Volatile environment’

Responding to the figures, NFU President Tom Bradshaw said the last few years had demonstrated the “volatile environment” in which farmers and growers are trying to make a living.

“We have moved from high commodity prices and soaring production costs in 2022 caused by the tragic situation in Ukraine, to much lower income figures in a weather-affected 2023, as commodity prices fell but production costs remained high,” he said.

Since the survey ended, we have seen record levels of rain and flooding the NFU President added, which has contributed to a “huge drop in confidence among farmers and put a real question mark over this year’s harvest”.

While farmers are well used to dealing with variation year on year, the volatility we’ve seen in the last few years isn’t sustainable.”

NFU President Tom Bradshaw

AHDB’s latest planning and variety survey revealed a ‘dramatic decline’ in cereals and oilseed rape planted this year, down by 5% in 2024 to the lowest level for over two decades with the total wheat area estimated to be the second smallest since 1981.

Crop and livestock output

According to Defra’s figures crop output fell by 13.1% in 2023, with wheat seeing the largest decrease at £1.2bn less than in 2022.

‘Low commodity prices combined with a poor yield resulted in substantial decreases in the value of many crop items,” Defra said.

Both the area and yield of wheat planted in England fell between 2022 and 2023 by 5.3% and 5.6% respectively.

Defra cited an ‘easing of prices’ in the UK from historic highs in 2022 as contributing to a decline in the value with milling wheat and feed wheat prices down by 13.0% and 21.6% respectively.

In addition, poor weather led to variable wheat quality,’ reducing the percentage of homegrown wheat that could be sold at the highest price category’.

Total livestock output in 2023 remained at £12.4 billion, with an increase in poultry output of £380 million offsetting a £353 million decrease in the value of milk.

Costs remain high

Defra’s figures showed that the cost of production totalled £15bn.

‘The value of most intermediate consumption items remained stable with the notable exception of fertiliser, which decreased by £337 million following easing of prices on the global market,’ Defra said.

The largest contribution to intermediate consumption was animal feed, Defra said, contributing £5,459 million in 2023.

“While farmers are well used to dealing with variation year on year, the volatility we’ve seen in the last few years isn’t sustainable,” Tom added. “Food security is national security, and that’s why we need the new government to be prioritising food production in its policy-making.”

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